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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 17, 2020 10:12:14 GMT -5
Here we go:
UT vs DEN
DAL vs LAC
OKC vs HOU POR vs LAL
PHI vs BOS
BKN vs TOR ORL vs MIL MIA vs IND
Predictions:
DEN VS LAC / OKC vs LAL / BOS vs TOR / MIL vs MIA LAC vs LAL / TOR vs MIL Then...... my head says LAC vs MIL Then...... my heart says LAL vs TOR
It'd be so awesome to see TOR make the Finals without Kawhi and to see Kawhi fall short.
I also badly want to see OKC beat HOU for some odd reason. That said, Dort is apparently hurt and Paul is hobbled (shocker, right?). Those are legitimate hits. At least they got Schroder back.
I want to see UT lose in the 1st round if only for my bitterness towards Gobert. They'll be without Conley for a bit, so that's a hit to them. Plus DEN is so good.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 17, 2020 10:20:21 GMT -5
I'm pulling for the Blazers Would love to see OKC beat Rockets Wonder how many games Luka can win vs Clippers
I'd love to see Blazers vs Heat
But I expect LA/LA/Bucks to be in final 3 Morons/Raptors to be the 4th
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 17, 2020 10:39:07 GMT -5
If it were any other team than the Lakers, I'd be pulling for the Blazers too. I badly want to see the Clippers/Lakers in the conference finals but anyone who thinks this is a lock - namely many of my friends/family and randoms on Laker fan group pages - are nuts. They have some tough matchups in the first two rounds looming and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if one fell short. That potential 2nd round matchup with Denver for the Clippers is especially daunting.
I likewise think anyone saying to book a Lakers/Bucks NBA Finals is also nuts. Yeah the Bucks will crush the Magic in the 1st round but they could face IND and bubble-stud TJ Warren in the 2nd round and then the hot Raptors, who were 7-1 in the bubble and 11-1 in their last 12 in general, in the Conference Finals.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 17, 2020 14:51:22 GMT -5
damn I'm gonna have to get used to the new playoff game times
Spida going beastmode with 40-7-6 late in the 4th, Nuggets up 1
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 17, 2020 15:20:41 GMT -5
Mitchell with 57-9-7 on 19-32 shooting, 6-14 on threes and 13-13 on FTs. That said, the team only go 14 points total in 98 minutes from O'Neal, Muiay, Niang, Bradley and some guy named Juwan Morgan who started. That team is really missing Bogdanovic.
Denver got a more balanced attack with the Jokic/Murray duo and then four others in double digits with Grant/Morris/Craig/Porter Jr.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 17, 2020 15:28:44 GMT -5
ahh makes sense I forgot about my boy Bogdan. No Conley or Bog so more useage and shots for Mitchell.
OT game and I guess Malone doesn't trust Bol for any meaningful playing time.
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Post by varsity on Aug 17, 2020 16:16:18 GMT -5
UT vs DEN DAL vs LAC OKC vs HOU POR vs LAL
PHI vs BOS BKN vs TOR ORL vs MIL MIA vs IND
Predictions:
DEN VS LAC / OKC vs LAL / BOS vs TOR / MIL vs MIA LAC vs LAL / TOR vs MIL
---------------
I'm going LAL vs TOR. LAL in 7 games.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 17, 2020 18:13:38 GMT -5
Freddie is gonna get paid Sounds like the kind of PG the Knicks would throw the max at
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 17, 2020 20:37:30 GMT -5
Freddie is gonna get paid Sounds like the kind of PG the Knicks would throw the max at
If the Knicks draft yet another PG atop the draft - be it LaMelo, Hayes, Haliburton - then they might spare themselves the opportunity of getting rejected by VanVleet.
If I had to guess, I see the Raptors keeping him with Lowry turning 35 next year and entering the last year of his contract. Between Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby and perhaps Powell, they have a nice long term core.
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 17, 2020 20:39:32 GMT -5
Not sure what the Sixers are going to do this offseason but man Horford is utterly useless on that team
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 17, 2020 20:59:16 GMT -5
I really thought that was a great fit with both Embiid and Horford can play both inside and out. Clearly wrong. That's not working, needs to be moved but then again Simmons can't stay healthy either.
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 17, 2020 22:00:29 GMT -5
I really thought that was a great fit with both Embiid and Horford can play both inside and out. Clearly wrong. That's not working, needs to be moved but then again Simmons can't stay healthy either.
I was one of those suckers who saw a starting lineup of Simmons, Richardson, Harris, Horford, Embiid and thought "DAMN. That is stacked".
Nope. Simmons still can't shoot and is hurt. Harris was an ill-fit at SF. Horford and Embiid can't play together.
Horford is 34 and owed 81M the next 3 seasons. I'd say that contract is immovable but if the Rockets could move Paul and the Wolves could move Wiggins, anything is possible. Some sucker will take Horford, likely a desperate bottom feeder looking for a "veteran leader". Like Charlotte. Who just happens to have an expiring contract that is a perfect match for Horford with Batum. IF Philly offers Horford and some draft capital - be it a 1st rd pick or multiple 2nd rd picks or some combo - to Charlotte for Batum, the Hornets most likely listen. Meanwhile Batum, in a minor role, could actually be fairly decent for the Sixers if for no other reason that in his prime he was a lesser version of Simmons..... who could shoot.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 17, 2020 22:02:24 GMT -5
That horrible Porzingis ejection is going to be the talk of and possible turning point of series. Terrible decision.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 18, 2020 7:51:48 GMT -5
^ nevermind..I forgot that he had got an early T..so yea, it was a weak tech..but got to be smart, can't go pushing in a crowd when you already have a Tech. Still was a lil lame.
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Post by YoungThundercat on Aug 18, 2020 8:02:47 GMT -5
^ nevermind..I forgot that he had got an early T..so yea, it was a weak tech..but got to be smart, can't go pushing in a crowd when you already have a Tech. Still was a lil lame. Yeah I think most people feel that the first T is horseshit. The second one was legit and honestly good for him sticking up for his star teammate after Morris tried to start stuff.
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Post by varsity on Aug 18, 2020 9:50:27 GMT -5
KP gotta be smarter than that though. Morris is an agitator much like Pat Bev and it cost them a key game this series. If you are KP, I get sticking up and defending your teammate but it's 5 other guys on that roster that should be taking that task on.
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 18, 2020 10:47:54 GMT -5
The Clippers are definitely a team that looks to get under your skin. Beverley is obviously the biggest instigator but they have some others who will try and rile you up.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 18, 2020 14:31:00 GMT -5
Who had Orlando up 13 in the 3rd?
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 18, 2020 17:19:11 GMT -5
Orlando wins convincingly with no Isaac or Gordon Vooch goes beast mode with 35-14-4 and Fultz continuing to redeem his career. 15-2-6 in his 1st real career playoff games - not counting sparse garbage minutes in 2018 with the Sixers.
I watched a good portion of this game and while it's kind of crazy to say a guy who had 31-17-7 on 12-25 shooting and 3-7 on threes could have player, truth is Giannis could have played better. The Orlando defense really smothered him down low and he clearly got frustrated and made mistakes down low.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 19, 2020 9:08:55 GMT -5
If they don't defend the high screen and roll it's going to be a short series, that and if KCP/Green can't throw it in the ocean. So AD/Howard/Javale either need to switch on the P/R or whoever is guarding Dame needs to fight harder over it. Can't go under it. Dame can shoot it from the logo, so have to do a better job.
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Post by YoungThundercat on Aug 19, 2020 9:39:16 GMT -5
Having watched that game I'm not really concerned in the slightest by it.
5-32 from 3. 7-26 in transition. +13 (Portland in 11 minutes with Nurkic and Whiteside on the floor together).
Lakers lose by 7.
All three of those stats will normalize and it will not be good for Portland.
Everybody was calling Lakers in 5 or 6 anyways, why does one loss change that?
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 19, 2020 9:52:48 GMT -5
Ariza would have been a perfect fit for them if he played. They really need another wing option, and defensive guy. But with most of their depth being big men..Lakers need to push it.
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 19, 2020 10:18:23 GMT -5
Having watched that game I'm not really concerned in the slightest by it. 5-32 from 3. 7-26 in transition. +13 (Portland in 11 minutes with Nurkic and Whiteside on the floor together). Lakers lose by 7. All three of those stats will normalize and it will not be good for Portland. Everybody was calling Lakers in 5 or 6 anyways, why does one loss change that?
To be fair, it's not like the Blazers played their A game either. They shot 39.2% overall. They committed 16 turnovers to the 9 for the Lakers. Collins was out with an injury leading them to start an undrafted rookie who contributed little outside of 5 fouls. No clue if/when Collins will be back but a return from him would be a notable boost to that rotation. Gary Trent had only his 2nd bad game in the bubble. Melo and Nurkic had their 2nd worst shooting night in the bubble.
Not saying the Lakers won't bounce back and ultimately win the series but it's worth noting that the Blazers also have room to play better as well. It's not like the Blazers played this amazing game and barely beat the Lakers on an off-night.
Am I surprised the Lakers lost Game 1? Honestly not really because the Blazers are riding high on momentum and adrenaline and a "we have nothing to lose" mentality being the 8th seed - who had to claw just to get there. Eventually the better team will win out and that's the Lakers but the Blazers are dangerous and will make this every bit the tough matchup that most non-delusional Laker fans figured it would be.
I will say this: Despite crappy shooting nights, Trent and Melo hit HUGE clutch threes that iced the game. The Lakers will need their own role players to step up and do the same - i.e. something better than that miserable shot by Caruso.
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Post by YoungThundercat on Aug 19, 2020 10:45:26 GMT -5
I agree that certainly a night scoring 100 isn't the best effort the Blazers have to give.
Specifically to your point about Trent and also Anthony, I see that as closer to the norm shooting wise for them than the 51% on 8 attempts and 47% on 4 attempts they put up from 3 in the bubble so far. Trent is a career 40.5% on 4 attempts and Carmelo is career 35% on 4 attempts. Now, Trent is obviously young and has a small sample, but that sounds more correct than him being Steph Curry 2.0.
My point is more that the Blazers have a couple depth guys massively overachieving and LA has basically everyone underachieving. IF both things revert to the norm and LA should win somewhat handily. If they dont, than this is a failed season for the Lakers and everyone should bear the brunt of that.
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 19, 2020 11:19:28 GMT -5
Specifically to your point about Trent and also Anthony, I see that as closer to the norm shooting wise for them than the 51% on 8 attempts and 47% on 4 attempts they put up from 3 in the bubble so far. Trent is a career 40.5% on 4 attempts and Carmelo is career 35% on 4 attempts. Now, Trent is obviously young and has a small sample, but that sounds more correct than him being Steph Curry 2.0. My point is more that the Blazers have a couple depth guys massively overachieving and LA has basically everyone underachieving. IF both things revert to the norm and LA should win somewhat handily. If they dont, than this is a failed season for the Lakers and everyone should bear the brunt of that.
Contrary to what has occurred prior to this game in the bubble, the Blazers won Game 1 despite none of their depth guys "massively overachieving". Among the role players - i.e. everyone named named CJ/Dame - Nurkic grabbed some rebounds and Whiteside blocked some shots. Other than that, nothing was spectacular. The Blazers role players as a whole shot 36.8% and 4 for 13 on threes. They committed 8 turnovers and committed 24 fouls. The Lakers role players - i.e. everyone not named Lebron/AD - shot 32.1% and 4 for 22 on threes. They committed 4 turnovers and committed 21 fouls. Obviously the Lakers were worse but it's not like the Blazers' role players were lighting it up.
As for Trent/Melo I wasn't specifically speaking to their 3pt shooting and keeping up that torrid pace. I was speaking more so that they shot 5 for 19 as a whole. So while the 33.3% they shot on threes in this game is closer to the norm, it's safe to say the 26.3% overall shooting isn't. Which statistically speaking means that if their 3pt shooting remained static for this game but they hit more of their 2-pointers to be more reflective of their overall averages, they'd have hit another 3.5 shots. Obviously no such thing as a 1/2 shot but point is on a average shooting night for them, the team would have gotten an additional 6 to 8 points.
Of course the Lakers' role players will shoot better. More so KCP, Kuz, Caruso. I don't know what to think about Danny Green to be frank, esp. since he was also awful for most of the 2019 playoffs too. If they can just NOT suck going forward, that'd make a huge difference.
That said, for me I think the Lakers just need AD to step up. 8 for 24 shooting and 0 for 5 on threes is not going to cut it. If he plays up to his averages, then the Lakers probably win this game and doesn't matter what the role players do. The fate of this season has always been about Lebron and AD anyways.
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Post by YoungThundercat on Aug 19, 2020 12:19:45 GMT -5
I think we are both kind of dancing around the same point, but I may be incorrect.
I think the most succinct way to say what I'm trying to say is that I believe the performance by Portland last night is closer to the level that they are, as opposed to the 122 points a night, Dame shooting blindfolded from the parking lot, Gary Trent and Melo being NBA Jam style "on fire" that they have been since arriving in Orlando.
Now certainly, that wasn't the best performance and they had some struggles of their own in the game last night, but it seems that most of the things I am hearing or reading today feel LA is in trouble because last night was a blip on the radar and Portland will be back to that "Bubble Champ" level and steamroll LA. I disagree with that.
My main contention is that while both teams played poorly last night and both teams had poor performances, that the Blazers more closely resembled their expected outcome than the Lakers performance. So with that being the hypothesis, the Lakers have more room to revert to "the norm" and of being the better team.
I think people have taken the last 8 (9 for Portland) and how different each team looked in those games (despite their differing circumstances) and used them to recontextualize last night as a damnation of the Lakers/crowning of the Blazers rather than what it most likely is; which is a worse team "getting one over" on a better team. Like, for example, Orlando beating Milwaukee yesterday. Or beating the Raptors in Game 1 last season. Iverson and the Sixers winning Game 1 in 2001.
Now we can agree fully that the whole season has and will come down to LBJ and AD. And they certainly both need to play better than they did last night. But the role players do need to bear the brunt of some of this.
Quite a few of these guys aren't multiple skill players. Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, JR, Dion and KCP are here for one reason. To hit shots. Sure, they can all play variations of serviceable to slightly above average defense, but they aren't shut down guys. They aren't playmakers. If you aren't hitting shots, what are you being paid for?
And this was known. Since the start of the season, everyone who has the slightest inkling of basketball knowledge has known the problem with this roster. So if it fails, I blame Rob Pelinka and I blame Frank Vogel before LBJ and AD.
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Post by doakley8 on Aug 19, 2020 12:34:33 GMT -5
An actually NBA discussion. Good times.
I'd give KCP a short leash..if he's misses a couple..and not slowing down CJ or Dame..try Smith or even Waiters for 6-8 minutes
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Post by eddieeddie on Aug 19, 2020 12:36:04 GMT -5
My main contention is that while both teams played poorly last night and both teams had poor performances, that the Blazers more closely resembled their expected outcome than the Lakers performance. So with that being the hypothesis, the Lakers have more room to revert to "the norm" and of being the better team. Well, yeah. I agree with that.
I was just commenting on your post that basically said the Lakers sucked and will normalize and they should still beat the Blazers. I wasn't discarding the Lakers' angle. I was just saying the Blazers had a poor performance as well since you made no mention of it. In the same post I said: "Not saying the Lakers won't bounce back and ultimately win the series" and "Eventually the better team will win out and that's the Lakers".
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Post by YoungThundercat on Aug 19, 2020 12:39:37 GMT -5
My main contention is that while both teams played poorly last night and both teams had poor performances, that the Blazers more closely resembled their expected outcome than the Lakers performance. So with that being the hypothesis, the Lakers have more room to revert to "the norm" and of being the better team. Well, yeah. I agree with that. I was just commenting on your post that basically said the Lakers sucked and will normalize and they should still beat the Blazers. I wasn't discarding the Lakers' angle. I was just saying the Blazers had a poor performance as well since you made no mention of it. In the same post I said: "Not saying the Lakers won't bounce back and ultimately win the series" and "Eventually the better team will win out and that's the Lakers".
You're good. I was just speaking more to the series moving forward than just the outcome last night. Certainly it was an ugly, ugly game last night and I hope the rest of the series is a little more fluid.
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Post by varsity on Aug 19, 2020 14:32:59 GMT -5
I said Lakers in 5 but I think Lakers in 6 now. I'm nowhere near as concerned as some of these "analysts" are. LeBron had a great game but I didn't see the real playoff urgency there. I think a lot of what he was doing was getting everyone else involved. I imagine Game 2 will be completely different.
Blazers are a team that's basically on it's 2nd-3rd playoff series and they are in playoff form. And what's dangerous with them is if the game is in the last 5 minutes, they are a team that has 3-4 guys who can get their shot and break down defenses. Key for the Lakers is to keep the same aggression throughout the game.
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