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Post by eddieeddie on Oct 22, 2019 13:12:54 GMT -5
Make your prediction
Who finishes with the better regular season record?
Who do you feel is more likely to win the 2020 NBA title?
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Post by eddieeddie on Oct 22, 2019 14:43:47 GMT -5
We all know this is going to be a talking point ALL season and no coincidence they face each other opening night to get the debate going – of course with no PG, no Kuz and both teams still figuring things out, the outcome of this game will have little meaning overall. PG being out to start the year certainly dampens the Clippers' regular season outlook and wouldn't surprise me if they were the #4 seed behind the Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz and not having homecourt could hurt in the 2nd round and Conference Finals. Heck, the West is so stacked that the Clippers could face a real challenge in the 1st round too - be it the Rockets, Blazers, Spurs, Warriors etc. Honestly, it might be a disservice to be the #1 seed if your prize are the Warriors at #8 with an active Klay. So I could very well see a scenario where the Clippers fail to meet the hype and the Lakers end up the better team. That said, come playoff time, if the Clippers have a healthy and rested PG/Kawhi to go along with everything else they have, there is just a lot going in their favor that makes them my choice to come out of the West: Identity: Last year, when people wrote them off after trading Tobias Harris, they overachieved en route to a surprising postseason appearance in a tough Western conference and developed a really gritty persona and being a dog on both ends of the court. Despite the roster turnover, that type of intensity should continue. PG/Kawhi not only firmly fit that persona but are elite at it. Coaching: Rivers has been there since 2013 and has a title. Lue is the head assistant and has a title as a HC. Cassell has been an AC with the Clips since 2014, an AC since 2009 and is a 3X champ as a player. Other ACs like Armond Hill, Brendan O'Connor and John Welch have been with the team multiple seasons. Outside of Lue, there isn't any coaching turnover and Lue was an AC under Rivers before so even then there is still stability. Starpower: OK, we know stars run the league. We saw what PG was last season before he got hurt and that was an MVP candidate and elite two way player. That's the PG the Clippers are expecting after having his surgery. We saw what Kawhi was in the postseason when he was rested thanks to load management. All he did was lead the team to a title. The Clippers have the luxury to wait on PG and rest Kawhi with their depth. This is an elite star duo. Management/Ownership: Lawrence Frank. Jerry West. Steve Ballmer. Gotta give them credit for building this roster and paying for it. The team may not have much in the way of trade assets but if the team needs to make a move at the deadline, including taking on salary, they'll find a way to get it done. Only having PG / Kawhi for sure for 2 seasons keeps the pressure on. Their best chip may be Harkless and his sizable expiring contract if a solid player is being salary dumped. They’ll also be very attractive to buyout candidates, esp. for a player who may see more appeal on joining up with Kawhi/PG than Lebron/AD. I love Lebron but can’t ignore he can be polarizing. Offense: We know what PG and Kawhi can do. No explanation needed for this elite duo. Lou is 20ppg+ 5apg+ last 2 seasons and is instant offense and can take over a game on his own. All 3 of these guys will thrive as pick and roll players. Harrell as a reserve was 16.6ppg 61.5fg% and is deadly rolling to the basket. Shamet was 42.2% on threes as a rookie, after being 43.7% in college, and should continue punishing teams if they sag off him. Beverley is 39.4% on threes the last 4 seasons and a capable distributor. JaMychal Green (career 36.9%) and Patrick Patterson (career 36.7%) are solid 3pt shooters for bigs. McGruder (7.6ppg 35.1fg% last season) and Harkless (career 7.3ppg 47.6fg%) are capable scorers and we know firsthand what Zubac can do in the post. What the team lacks in a big time low post threat, they make up for in getting to the foul line. They ranked 1st in FTA last season. The team also ranked 5th in PPG and 2nd in 3FG%. They’re obviously more dangerous now. Defense: Do they lack a rim protector like Howard, McGee, AD? Yes. This is a team that is going to rely on versatility/length and playing passing lanes, strong perimeter one on one defense, ability to shut down the pick and roll and heavy switching - and they have the personnel to do that. PG and Kawhi are absolutely elite on defense and can guard 1 to 4. Even at 6’1” Beverley has shown he can defend multiple positions at an elite level. Harrell is a beast and people don’t realize he has a 7’4” wingspan. Harkless and McGruder are strong wing defenders who can guard multiple positions. JaMychal Green was a good perimeter and interior defender who worked hard and Patterson is a serviceable defender Zubac is big and will clog the lane and rebound. There is no rim protector – unless rookie Kabengele surprises, his uncle is Dikembe after all - so they will rely on hustle and disruption and effort to be an elite defensive squad and they have the perfect roster, and coach, for that style. I think a healthy Clippers team has all the tools to be the favorite with their coaching, this particular star duo led by a guy who literally just led his team to the title, their strong depth, their tenacious style of play, their clear versatility and what I think will be fantastic team chemistry. For all the positives I see on the Lakers' side, I also see a lot of question marks. I don’t have the same confidence in the Lakers having a real identity to work with, which has been an issue with them since Lebron came over. Lebron says it’s now AD’s team but I don’t believe him. Plus AD having his own team hasn’t quite panned out. Yeah he never had Lebron before but just saying, him being the focal point hasn’t proven to be a successful stance. I also am not excited about Vogel. He was a decent fallback option but he was just that, a fallback option. I don’t think he has the cache to step up to Lebron if needed and I have concerns about him offensively and have read articles about how his teams underperformed. That said he’s strong defensively and perhaps Lebron, AD and all the shooters can make up for a flawed offensive scheme. Injuries are an issue I brought up before and that was before Boogie got hurt. He is realistically out for the season. Kuzma is hurt and out indefinitely. AD didn't get seriously hurt in the preseason but it's just a reminder he is fragile. Lebron is no longer the unbreakable physical beast and will be 35 in 2 months with a ton of mileage. There are other guys with real injury concerns, like Rondo, Bradley and Howard. This isn’t to say the Clippers don’t have their fair share of injury concerns obviously but I see more vulnerability on the Lakers’ squad. There are a lot of big personalities on this team, none bigger than Lebron but even guys like Rondo and Howard have to reel it back. Is there enough leadership from guys like Green, Bradley Dudley to keep the peace - all of whom are new to the team? Can Vogel keep the peace? Chemistry might be an issue, yet again, as the team is trying to work in a new HC and coaching staff and system, a ton of new players (only KCP, Caruso were there in 2017-2018) and deal with massive expectations that come with having Lebron, giving up a ton for AD, and not having made the playoffs since 2013 or making it past the 2nd round since 2010. While no one expects AD to leave as a FA in 2020, the mere fact that he can opt out and test free agency is added pressure. Obviously there is massive pressure on the Clippers but I'd argue it's greater for the Lakers when you consider Lebron's age and that the Lakers are a title or bust type of franchise to begin with, let alone what they mortgaged to assemble this particular roster. Of course there are the positives. Lots of them: Lebron/AD, when healthy and motivated, is arguably the best 1-2 punch in today's game. Yup, greater than PG/Kawhi. The team lost out on players as they chased Kawhi but did well to stock the team with depth, specifically shooting. Howard was a low risk/legitimate reward move. Vogel wasn't the first choice obviously but he was the best next tier option and does bring some success with him. If the team can stay healthy enough, avoid drama and distraction and develop enough cohesiveness on the court, they can certainly end up winning the title. I can easily see the Lakers being the #1 seed in the West......
I just give the Clippers the edge if forced to choose who would win the title because I feel more comfortable with their entire package come playoff time. This could also be a case of me being burned by believing in the Lakers the last few seasons only to see the team crash and burn in epic fashion. Perhaps deep down I’d rather “pick” the Clippers as the favorites and be pleasantly surprised that the Lakers came out on top rather than pick the Lakers as the favorites and just end up disappointed once again.
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Post by varsity on Oct 22, 2019 15:28:12 GMT -5
I think the Clippers are good enough for the #2 seed in the West. Even though they made some major changes in the offseason, I think the skillset of their star players will be easier to mesh together than the Lakers. I expect the Lakers to have some growing pains out the gate getting used to a new coaching staff, new players, new offense, etc. At least with the Clippers, players like Harrell, Beverly and Lou Williams are accustomed to playing under Doc Rivers and Kawhi is just a guy who can slide in almost anywhere and get you 10+ wins himself. Without PG13, I still expect them to compete out the gate.
I expect the Lakers to hit their stride late November-early December. I see turnovers being an issue and I'm still not sold they have enough shooting around AD and LeBron (though better than last year). I think they are going to need Danny Green or Avery Bradley to return to their forms years ago to fill that void. Their bench is solid enough though to keep them in games. If anything I love the Quinn Cook pickup more than the others.
Better regular season record: Clippers by a slim margin Better chance to win a 2020 title: Clippers
Right now I think the Jazz can be a #1 seed with the Los Angeles teams right behind them. Followed by Blazers, Nuggets, Rockets, Warriors and Spurs (in no particular order).
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Post by doakley8 on Oct 22, 2019 15:38:29 GMT -5
With Kawhi's load management playing 65 games and PG13 probably miss his 15 games or so. I think Clippers will be a 3-4 4th seed. I think Lakers have great depth, as I know Clippers do as well. I think Lakers win the division by 3-4 games. Doc will do his resting of players. And as much as I still don't like LeBron..with all the talent on this roster if he doesn't win it then that's just more for the critics (and Oak) to pile on.
My rough guess
Nuggets Jazz Lakers Clippers Blazers Rockets Warriors Spurs
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Post by varsity on Oct 22, 2019 15:53:49 GMT -5
I think LeBron and AD are going to have load management too so that's why I didn't really count Kawhi's. I'd be shocked if either plays more than 65-70 games. I just think this offense is going to have some rough spots in the beginning. I'm still under the belief the Lakers wanted Kidd over Vogel anyway so it'll be interesting to see if they bump heads in any kind of way.
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Post by eddieeddie on Oct 22, 2019 16:00:15 GMT -5
Kawhi/PG are certainly expected to miss a fair amount of games. That being said, stands to reason AD/Lebron will also miss some games. The former because he misses games every season (18, 15, 14, 21, 7, 7, 26 in his career). The latter will be subjected to load management himself and is also at risk of injury. If I had to place a bet, it'd be Kawhi/PG missing more games is very much the safe bet when all is said and done but would it surprise anyone if the gap was minimal? The key really is just being healthy come playoff time. In the last 3 seasons, outside of the Warriors, none of the #1 seeds made the finals (Bucks, Raptors, Rockets, Morons). Homecourt is important but not as important as having the better team - or in some cases, just having the best stars (see Lebron with the Cavs).
I also think it's a disservice to the rest of the West to assume it's Clippers or Lakers
I picked the Clippers and think the Lakers have a great shot as well but I noted the Nuggets and Jazz in my post because I also feel they have a very good shot at being the Western Conference rep. Heck, the Rockets, Blazers and Warriors with an 80% Klay can't be dismissed either.
The West is going to be nuts and wouldn't surprise me if the answer of Lakers vs Clippers ended up just being which one was able to make it past the 2nd round and not which one won the title.
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Post by varsity on Oct 22, 2019 16:11:53 GMT -5
Plus those teams scrapping for the 8th seed can make noise. I think the Kings and Mavs are right there if healthy and their core players take the next step. It wouldn't shock me to see the Western teams separated by 1-2 games from 1-10. I don't see a team running away with the West this year.
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Post by mark808 on Oct 23, 2019 0:31:27 GMT -5
welp that was a poor showing in the 4th period for the Lakers.. offense was just so stagnant..
who would've thought Danny Green would be the leading scorer.. Vogel has to work on his rotations.. it'll get better when Kuzma is healthy.. cringe seeing Dudley out there on defense.. and man KCP slept the entire game.. all that length and the team gets out-rebounded.. need to utilize the bigs (Javale/Dwight) better on offense.. I mean something simple as setting a pick and lobbing one to the basket.. just game 1.. but really wanted them to get that W
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Post by doakley8 on Oct 23, 2019 9:01:36 GMT -5
While I cant stand Beverley (much like I couldn't stand Matt Barnes or Artest) I would totally want him on my team. Glad he got his paycheck.
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Post by eddieeddie on Oct 23, 2019 10:30:58 GMT -5
While I cant stand Beverley (much like I couldn't stand Matt Barnes or Artest) I would totally want him on my team. Glad he got his paycheck.
He was always on my list of players I wanted the Lakers to sign this past summer. While others were throwing around more exciting PG options like Kemba/Russell as possibilities, I was more about Beverley/Brogdon. Personally I thought Beverley would actually get more than he did from the Clippers. In a summer where Kemba got 35M per, Russell got 29M per, Brogdon got 21M per, Rozier got 18.9M per, Delon Wright got 14M per, Cory Joseph got 12.4M per and Rubio got 17M per...... Beverley at 13.3M per was a bargain.
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Post by varsity on Oct 23, 2019 12:41:30 GMT -5
Last night was kinda what I expected from this team. The shooters, outside of Danny Green, failed them and I think that's going to be something you won't see pick up a rhythm till 20-25 game mark. What's going to be interesting is when Rondo returns will the Lakers utilize AD more with the pick and pop? He clearly wants to show his face up game and I remember when he was playing with Cousins in New Orleans how he mentioned he wasn't interested in playing in the post the whole game. He tried to face up more in the 2nd half but the offense was too stagnant and the Lakers did a poor job of spacing.
It was a good move by the Clips to use Beverly on LeBron because when AD was down in the low post, Beverly basically doubled down and dared LeBron to shoot. And the times he drove, the lanes were clogged with Kawhi and Harrell. That's why I think the Clippers are going to be a tough team throughout the season. Their ability to switch defensively is going to be a nightmare and they have very smart defensive players. Once they get PG back, it's going to be even tougher.
All that said, I thought it was a good first game. Definitely nothing to say the sky is falling about.
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Post by eddieeddie on Dec 26, 2019 11:28:48 GMT -5
That was a great game last night. Much needed given the 3 prior games had boring endings. Granted it was amusing to see the short-handed Warriors beat the Rockets.
This game just showed how close these two teams are and how chippy things will get if they meet in the playoffs, which I really really really hope happens - and both teams are healthy.
The Clippers clearly need another frontcourt player with legitimate height/length to hang with AD. This was acknowledged prior to the season but simply put, sorry but Patterson/Zubac/Green are not the answer and while Harrell is solid, he's also way shorter than AD. The length of the Lakers' frontcourt with AD, Kuz, Howard, McGee will give the Clippers' real problems and won't really allow them to use their best lineup as much (Beverley, Lou, Kawhi, PG, Harrell). Their best trade chip is Harkless' expiring deal. He's a viable rotation player who can contribute on both ends so it'd be tough to let him go but that 11M can bring back a quality piece and the team can replace his SF minutes with McGruder. I thought of the disgruntled Thaddeus Young of the Bulls or Marvin Williams from the Hornets but they are no bigger than Green/Harrell really. Perhaps Dedmon from the Kings (who they would gladly unload to be free of the 14.3M owed to him after this season), Marcus Morris from the Knicks (they need to trade him for whatever they can get and commit more time to their young guys) or Dieng from the Wolves (who suck and probably thinking firesale soon).
The Lakers shot crappy but they also lucked out that PG/Lou sucked as well. Lou's 6 tied his season low - in a game where he got ejected. What the Lakers need to do is figure out their guard rotation and then stick with it, especially to close games. Too many variations between Bradley, Green, Rondo, KCP, Caruso. Outside of KCP, that collection went 7 for 26 and 3 for 15 on threes. Once they iron out a consistent rotation they can trust come playoff time, hopefully the chemistry will be there and lead to more open shots and better shooting.
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Post by eddieeddie on Dec 26, 2019 12:24:00 GMT -5
On the topic of the Clippers, interesting how basically 2 trades shaped their franchise:
June 2017: Clippers traded Chris Paul for Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams, four randoms and a 2018 1st rd pick (ended up being #30).
They used that 2018 1st rd pick in the deal to get Danillo Gallinari Obviously they still have Beverley, Lou, Harrell and all are huge pieces for their current roster.
January 2018: Clippers traded Blake Griffin (and two randoms) and got back Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris, Boban and two picks (2018 1st ended up being #12 and 2019 2nd ended up being #56).
They used Avery Bradley to get JaMychal Green and re-signed this past summer They used Tobias/Boban to get Landry Shamet + 2 1st rd picks + 2 2nd rd picks They used that 2018 1st rd pick in the deal to get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander They used that 2019 2nd rd pick in the deal to get 2019 #27 pick Kabengele
They then packed SGA, Gallinari + one the 1st rd picks in the Harris deal for Paul George.
They used cap space to get Kawhi + Harkless and Miami 2023 1st which they also sent to OKC for PG. They had claimed McGruder off waivers in April 2019 and re-signed him this past summer.
They traded Muscala in the deal for Zubac and re-signed him this past summer. They signed Patrick Patterson, Derrick Walton this past summer They drafted Terance Mann #48 this past draft
So basically the ONLY guy on their 15 man roster who didn't somehow come from the Paul/Blake trades or come/retained via the 2019 free agency period or the 2019 draft is Jerome Robinson..... who was the #13 pick in the 2018 draft.
They have zero players from their 2016-2017 roster and just the 3 Rockets' guys from the 2017-2018 roster (Lou, Bev, Harrell).
Kind of sounds like the Lakers who have zero players from their 2016-2017 roster (which had Lou/Zubac on it) and just 3 guys from the 2017-2018 roster (KCP, Caruso, Kuz).
Amazing the overhaul these two teams have gone through since 2018. Bringing in some dudes named Lebron, Anthony Davis, Kawhi and Paul George. Randoms.
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